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Prediction markets look brutal for the GOP — but Stu Burguiere sees one bright spot
Midterm elections are just days away, and it’s not looking good for the GOP. Prediction markets strongly favor Democrats, with both Kalshi and Polymarket pointing to a Democratic sweep of both chambers.
“If you happen to be a Republican or conservative, it's been kind of cloudy weather, right?” BlazeTV host Stu Burguiere acknowledges.
“You can say you don't believe prediction markets. You can say you don't believe the news. All that's totally up to you. One thing that is believable, though, is where Republicans are putting their money,” he continues, “and right now, Republicans are putting their money in states like Mississippi, South Carolina, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas.”
Based on where the funding is going, the GOP, Stu argues, has “given up on states like North Carolina and Georgia,” where both Senate races favor Democrats by over 90%.
But other states, he says, seem to be going from “horrible news to less bad news.”
Displaying recent data from YouGov showing that the Democratic lead has narrowed from its September peak, Stu says that Republicans, who have been “not as passionate” as Democrats in this election, are starting to gain interest again.
“As you get closer to a race, as you come out of Labor Day, as you get out of the summer stuff, your kids go back to school, you start focusing on the election again. You start seeing a hundred million dollars of ads; all of a sudden you go from, ‘I don't really care about this election’ to, ‘You know what, I actually kind of do care about this election, and now I am going to make sure I get out and vote,”’ he explains.
Citing more YouGov data, he continues, “85% of Democrats said they were sure to vote. That has risen to 87. ... Republicans have seen a much more dramatic gain there. They were at 70% and have risen all the way to 80%, so they have closed the gap from about 15 points to seven in that time period of about a month.”
“That is very good news for Republicans and Republican candidates, if this holds true.”
Even though trends are looking more positive for the GOP, Stu is by no means celebrating.
“What the truth here is that while there is a narrowing, the narrowing doesn't mean you're going to see massive gains for Republicans in the House and Senate. I don't think that's going to happen at all,” he says soberly.
To hear more of Stu’s prediction market breakdown, watch the episode above.
Want more from Stu?To enjoy more of Stu's lethal wit, wisdom, and mockery, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.
WATCH: Florida Parents' Claim Cops Were Called on Three-Year-Old Soccer Player for Being 'Too Good' Debunked
Police officers were called to a youth soccer game in Florida, not because one of the players was too good, but because of his parents' alleged disruptive behavior on Saturday.
The post WATCH: Florida Parents’ Claim Cops Were Called on Three-Year-Old Soccer Player for Being ‘Too Good’ Debunked appeared first on Breitbart.
Iran's Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi's New Message to the People of Iran
‘Golf Industry Is Not Going To Like This’: AG Kris Mayes Responds To Debate Over Whether Too Many Courses In Arizona
9th Circuit rejects Trump DOJ's emergency motion over 20,000 questionable voters in California
A Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals panel has denied an emergency request from the federal government to force California officials to set aside mail-in ballots from 20,000 people tagged as possible noncitizens.
Californian officials have resisted the request from the Dept. of Justice because they say there's not enough time to verify the legality of each voter before the election.
'It was determined that none of the individuals USCIS matched to the County's Sample List were born in the United States according to USCIS records.'
They have also accused the administration of trying to disenfranchise voters on vague and unreliable evidence that has not been provided to the state officials.
On Monday evening, the appeals court ruled 2-1 that it lacked the jurisdiction to grant the emergency request. The panel of judges did not rule on the eligibility of the 20,000 voters.
The court majority ruling pointed out that the federal government knew about the possibility of noncitizen voters for months and filed its demand only after processing of mail-in ballots had already begun:
There is a material risk that defendants would be unable to complete the verification process for all voters on the October list by December 3. Thus, there is a real risk that granting plaintiff its requested relief would result in disenfranchisement, and worse, could jeopardize the county’s entire election.Justice Department attorney Matthew Donnelly had argued California's actions were causing irreparable harm "by allowing noncitizens to vote in violation of their own state laws. The damage is irreversible and irrevocable."
Seth Waxman, attorney for the Los Angeles County Clerk, argued that reviewing the millions of records against the government's list would take about 140,000 man hours, which is about 16 years of time.
He also cited a review of a sample of 200 records from the list, saying that staffers found many of them were canceled or inactive registrations or individuals with no voting history.
However, a U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services official submitted a sworn affidavit that review of the 200 names found none of them were born in the U.S., contrary to L.A. officials alleging that 38.9% had attested to being native born.
RELATED: Justice Department seeks to BLOCK ballots of 20,000 alleged noncitizen voters in California
"After a thorough review of the immigration records of all the individuals on the County's Sample List, it was determined that none of the individuals USCIS matched to the County's Sample List were born in the United States according to USCIS records," said Nicolas Bartell, associate director of the Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate at USCIS.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta praised the ruling from the appeals court.
"The U.S. Constitution gives states and Congress — not the president or the executive branch — the power to determine the time, place, and manner of elections," he said. "The court’s order serves as an important step in our efforts to protect Californians’ right to vote and our state’s authority to run fair and secure elections."
"Trump’s assault on democracy won’t slow down. Each and every one of us can do something: participate in democracy, don’t become disillusioned," said Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom. "California is fighting back. And we are calling on all Californians to do the same."
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HBO's John Oliver Says Republicans Are 'Way Too Comfortable with Nazi-Adjacent Sh*t' in Midterms Tirade
As Americans head into the midterm elections, HBO's British late-night TV host, John Oliver, is claiming that Republicans are Nazis.
The post HBO’s John Oliver Says Republicans Are ‘Way Too Comfortable with Nazi-Adjacent Sh*t’ in Midterms Tirade appeared first on Breitbart.
Maryland Governor’s $200 Million Plan To Lower Power Bills Comes With A Catch
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'SNL' Star Michael Che Mocks Charlie Kirk Assassination in Netflix Special
Comedian Michael Che mocked Charlie Kirk's assassination during his new Netflix special. "They shot that ni**a like Squid Games," the "Saturday Night Live" star ghoulishly joked.
The post ‘SNL’ Star Michael Che Mocks Charlie Kirk Assassination in Netflix Special appeared first on Breitbart.
Speaker Johnson Calls Fears of Contested Midterms ‘Absurd’
Susan Saint James, Emmy-Winning Star of ‘McMillan & Wife’ and ‘Kate & Allie,’ Dies at 80
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Susan Saint James, who co-starred with Rock Hudson in the 1970s TV crime series “McMillan & Wife” and later co-starred with Jane Curtin in the sitcom “Kate & Allie” in the 1980s, has died. She was 80.
The post Susan Saint James, Emmy-Winning Star of ‘McMillan & Wife’ and ‘Kate & Allie,’ Dies at 80 appeared first on Breitbart.
Jordan Bombs Islamic State Bases in Syria After Church Attack
Jordan conducted airstrikes against alleged Islamic State targets in Syria on Tuesday, as “retaliation” for a brutal terrorist attack on a Greek Orthodox church in southern Jordan on Friday.
The post Jordan Bombs Islamic State Bases in Syria After Church Attack appeared first on Breitbart.