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Report: Musk's $158 Million Boost Aided Paxton Senate Bid

3 weeks 4 days ago
Elon Musk's donation of $158 million in September to Senate Republicans' leading super PAC, which transferred matching amounts the following day to a group supporting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's Senate campaign, may have helped Paxton's war chest.

Insider trading. Addiction horror stories. Why the feds are probing America's insane new pastime.

3 weeks 4 days ago


The Federal Trade Commission is reportedly taking its first hard look at online sports betting. According to the Washington Sun, political appointees and career staff are reviewing sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings, most likely over deceptive advertising. DraftKings says it hasn't received a civil investigative demand (the FTC's version of a subpoena), and FanDuel says it hasn't heard a word from the agency.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly aren't part of the review. Yet three out of four Americans consider them gambling, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The 'event contract' pitch

Prediction markets insist they aren't gambling. You're not placing a bet, they say. You're trading an "event contract": buy a contract on whether something will happen, and if you're right, it pays out a dollar. Buyers and sellers set the price. The platform takes a fee instead of betting against you, which the companies say makes them a different animal from a sportsbook.

Maybe so. But a platform that lives on fees still needs people to keep trading.

Reuters/Ipsos surveyed 4,506 adults from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5. In the results, 75% called prediction-market wagering gambling, even though only 7% had ever used one to bet money. Every category drew more opposition than support:

Prediction markets on...

Oppose

Support

U.S. military actions

65%

8%

Government policy announcements or decisions

63%

9%

Election results

60%

13%

Professional sports

43%

29%

Unsure and skipped responses aren't shown.

Markets on world events have already drawn insider trading charges. The CFTC has accused a U.S. Army soldier of buying more than 436,000 "yes" shares on whether Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro would be out by Jan. 31, 2026, and pocketing more than $400,000.

Opposition to election markets crossed party lines: 61% of Republicans and 69% of Democrats were against them.

Earlier polling found the same thing. A February survey by Siena Research Institute and St. Bonaventure University, released in April, found that 65% of Americans want prediction markets held to the same state rules as sportsbooks when users can profit on sports outcomes. Among men 18 to 49, it was 73%.

Kalshi objects

Kalshi told Fortune, "It's not hard to bias a poll, and this poll is biased." The company objected to what it called leading questions about betting on war and noted it doesn't offer war markets.

The poll described prediction markets as a way to wager money on real-world events, then asked separately about elections, military actions, government policy, and sports. Kalshi can quarrel with that framing. But the questions said "U.S. military actions," not "war."

The sportsbooks sell event contracts, too

FanDuel and DraftKings have launched prediction markets of their own: FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions.

In states where FanDuel runs a licensed sportsbook, Predicts sticks to things like stock indexes and economic data. In states where it can't run a sportsbook, it sells sports contracts. That includes California and Texas, and FanDuel's own state guide lists Predicts in both. DraftKings has done the same.

Sports is where the money's going. Pew Research Center found combined monthly trading on Kalshi and Polymarket more than doubled between May and July, from $26 billion to $53 billion, with sports driving most of the jump. Pew counts each contract at its $1 payout, not what traders paid for it.

These contracts run through federally regulated exchanges, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sued at least five states, including New York and Illinois, arguing that it alone gets to regulate them. Courts are still sorting out whether federal rules beat state gambling laws. None of that explains why the FTC would leave prediction markets out of its review.

Prediction markets have had their own advertising trouble. In June, the Wall Street Journal reported that Polymarket paid people to post videos of fake bets and fake wins on near-copies of its website. They were reportedly told to keep quiet about being paid.

Monica Vaca, who spent more than two decades as a consumer protection attorney at the FTC, told the Sun that allegations like these sit squarely within the agency's core work and would justify investigating every platform involved.

Keeping customers betting

The New York Times reported last month that DraftKings used AI to find gamblers likely to bet more, and lose more, once they got free bets and bonuses. The Times drew on internal documents and interviews with more than 40 former employees. DraftKings disputes it, saying offers follow how actively customers use the platform, not their losses.

A gambler suing FanDuel says he lost $1.5 million with the company, then got a personalized Thanksgiving video from Bryce Harper through the FanDuel host who handled perks for big spenders. Harper later said he never knew FanDuel would use the video that way and never consented.

The industry says the broader harm is overstated. Joe Maloney, president of the Sports Betting Alliance, pointed the Sun to a Progressive Policy Institute study that found credit scores in states with legal sports betting have moved in line with the rest of the country.

Gambling at the White House

The Trump administration has largely welcomed the industry. At this summer's UFC event on the South Lawn, Stake, an online casino and sportsbook, was a sponsor. Polymarket branding sat right alongside it while users traded millions of dollars on the fights.

Not every conservative is on board. Jon Schweppe, a former senior policy adviser at the FTC now with the American Principles Project, has compared sportsbooks to Big Tobacco, Big Tech, and Big Pharma. One of the Sun's sources described a generational split among Republicans: Older officials wave it off, while younger appointees see an industry tearing up families.

The FTC's review is still preliminary, and its scope could change. If the agency is worried about deceptive gambling ads, it ought to follow the ads, whatever the company calls the bet.

Josh Centers

Reports: Dad May Have Stopped Oregon School Shooter

3 weeks 4 days ago
A bystander who pursued and fatally shot a teenage gunman after three children and a teacher were killed at an Oregon elementary school Thursday may have been a student's father, according to emergency dispatch audio.

Joe Rogan EVISCERATES Democratic Party in front of ever-blue Michael Douglas

3 weeks 4 days ago


Joe Rogan — the influential podcaster who prompted many a conniption on the left by endorsing President Donald Trump on the eve of the 2024 election — has explained to a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat precisely why he kicked the Democratic Party to the curb.

Just weeks after slamming Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (I) for bending the knee "to the Democratic establishment," Rogan suggested to actor Michael Douglas on Wednesday that America's political duopoly breeds a tribalism that causes some people to "ignore all the craziness that our side is doing because it's our side."

'I didn't like any of that stuff.'

Rogan stated that the craziness on the left, particularly on the issue of illegal immigration, became too much for him to ignore.

"First of all, the open border was insane," said Rogan. "It was insane to just not only leave the border open but give people instructions on how to get in, and also transport them to cities, and then put them up in hotels."

"It was really clear that a game was being played," continued Rogan.

Rogan speculated that Democrats may have engineered the border crisis for cheap labor, to import new voting blocs, and/or to increase population numbers ahead of the next census in order to strategically secure additional congressional seats.

RELATED: Joe Rogan pounces on uproar over Shane Gillis joke about women dressing like 'whores' at gyms

"Yeah, yeah," responded Douglas — an outspoken Democrat who poured cash into former President Barack Obama's 2012 reelection bid, donated to Hillary Clinton's second doomed presidential campaign, supported Michael Bloomberg's unsuccessful presidential bid in 2020, and threw a campaign fundraiser for former President Joe Biden in 2024.

"If you want me to be a Democrat while you're just letting people fly in from the open border, I’m like 'Hey! Fix that!' It seems crazy to have 10 million people of unknown origin enter into your country over a period of [four years]," added Rogan.

With Douglas unable or unwilling to raise any counterpoint, Rogan proceeded to condemn the Democratic Party's apparent aversion to holding competitive presidential primaries.

"This whole thing is supposed to work a very specific way," said the podcaster. "And if it's like, 'We have to win, so we're just going to push that aside, and here's your candidate!' What the f**k are you doing? That's not how it's supposed to be done, and if you want me to vote for that — I'm not going to vote for that. That seems crazy. That seems dangerous."

Rogan appears to have been referring to the anointing of Kamala Harris as the Democrat nominee in 2024 without having an open primary.

The podcaster further faulted Democrats for gaslighting the nation about Biden's cognitive decline, their "f**king defund the police stuff," their apparent willingness to free criminals, and their authoritarianism during COVID.

"I didn't like the whole COVID vaccine mandatory thing that they were pushing for those four years," said Rogan. "I didn't like the coercion. I didn't like keeping people from flying. I didn't like any of that stuff. It was all crazy. And to me, that's what that group stood for."

Douglas finally spoke up, noting that these reasons account for why Rogan rejected the Democrats in 2024. He then asked where Rogan stands now.

While the podcaster did not denounce Trump or the GOP as he previously had Sanders and the Democratic Party, he lamented Trump's decision to engage Iran militarily, suggesting it was incongruent with the president's anti-war message on the campaign trail.

pollwatch.theblaze.com

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Joseph MacKinnon